Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FC Košice vs. MŠK Žilina: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.1K
$12.2
49¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $493.45 | $503.52 | +$10.07 | 52% 1359-1270 (2629) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 48.9¢ | $290 | $296.25 | +$6.25 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 52¢ | $168.35 | $161.88 | -$6.47 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49.1¢ | $137.59 | $105.19 | +$2.61 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $12.75 | $12.5 | -$0.25 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
us391CTRInvested
$493.45
Value
$503.52
PnL
+$10.07
Record
52%
1359-1270 (2629)
Invested
$290
Value
$296.25
PnL
+$6.25
Record
52%
16312-14865 (31177)
Invested
$168.35
Value
$161.88
PnL
-$6.47
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$137.59
Value
$105.19
PnL
+$2.61
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.75
Value
$12.5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.