Will FC Košice win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $301 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$300.87
-$17.26
54.2¢ → 51¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 54.4¢ | $123.56 | $115.77 | -$7.79 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 54¢ | $166.68 | $99.02 | -$9.65 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Noavg 53.7¢ | $84.3 | $81.67 | -$5.58 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53.7¢ | $52.18 | $49.55 | -$2.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $32.12 | $32.12 | -$2.95 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $4.23 | $4.41 | +$0.18 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$123.56
Value
$115.77
PnL
-$7.79
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
VeryLucky888Invested
$166.68
Value
$99.02
PnL
-$9.65
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$84.3
Value
$81.67
PnL
-$5.58
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.