Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will KFC Komárno win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 29¢ · $573 held · ended Oct 25

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$572.58

Combined PnL

-$10.84

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 29¢

-41% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$532.66

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL-$19.66

No2 traders

Total Value$39.92

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$8.82

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$329.82	$302.9	-$13.46	47% 1983-2212 (4195)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$150	$135	-$1.5	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$63	$56.7	-$0.63	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.8¢	$42.12	$38.06	-$4.07	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$28.35	$37.17	+$8.82	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.75	+$0	55% 4850-4034 (8884)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$329.82

Value

$302.9

PnL

-$13.46

Record

47%

1983-2212 (4195)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$135

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63

Value

$56.7

PnL

-$0.63

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.12

Value

$38.06

PnL

-$4.07

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$28.35

Value

$37.17

PnL

+$8.82

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4850-4034 (8884)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.