FC Thun vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 86¢ · $19 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$19.43
-$10.31
Research grade
NeutralOver at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $19.99 | $17.2 | -$2.78 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $2.22 | +$0.68 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
RO Rocky31CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $43 | $0.01 | -$8.2 | 72% 1257-477 (1734) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.