Will FC Lugano win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 55¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 25

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

-$196.2

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 54.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares23,588

Combined PnL-$528.15

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares12,146

Combined PnL+$331.95

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crisp1973	Noavg 49.8¢	$10.6K	$10.0K	-$591.72	54% 70-60 (130)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$150	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$150
└ No leg	Noavg 47¢	$869.5	$869.5	+$0
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$66.82	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$70.1
└ No leg	Noavg 46.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$136.92
OL OldZzCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$126.53	46% 76-90 (166)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$120	47% 1968-2204 (4172)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$90	51% 979-932 (1911)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 49.3¢	$914.44	$991.56	+$77.12	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	$769.25	$792.51	+$23.26	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.4¢	$503.98	$530.22	+$26.24
└ No leg	Noavg 47.5¢	$265.27	$262.29	-$2.98
fraj0laCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$502.2	$488.25	-$4.65	64% 204-115 (319)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 49¢	$345.27	$188.01	-$13.01	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 47¢	$51.89	$52.03	+$0.15	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 51¢	$9.18	$8.46	-$0.72	59% 13892-9640 (23532)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$5.04	$5.14	+$0.1	65% 1534-821 (2355)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.68	+$0.03	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.33	-$0.02	51% 6539-6324 (12863)

crisp1973

Invested

$10,558.75

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$591.72

Record

54%

70-60 (130)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,369.5

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$150

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

Both legs:

Invested

$2,467.71

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$66.82

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

Both legs:

Yes$1,410.7850¢-$70.1

No$1,056.9346.5¢+$136.92

OldZzCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$126.53

Record

46%

76-90 (166)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$120

Record

47%

1968-2204 (4172)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$90

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$914.44

Value

$991.56

PnL

+$77.12

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$769.25

Value

$792.51

PnL

+$23.26

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

Both legs:

Yes$503.9850.4¢+$26.24

No$265.2747.5¢-$2.98

fraj0laCTR

Yes

Invested

$502.2

Value

$488.25

PnL

-$4.65

Record

64%

204-115 (319)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$345.27

Value

$188.01

PnL

-$13.01

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$51.89

Value

$52.03

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$0.72

Record

59%

13892-9640 (23532)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.1

Record

65%

1534-821 (2355)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.