Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FC Sion, while the market favors Lausanne-Sport (51%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: FC Sion (-1.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FC Sion (75%) · FC Sion at 49¢ · $162 held · ended Oct 25

FC Sion49¢Lausanne-Sport51¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Sion

Consensus Traders

FC Sion 75%

Total Value

$162.08

Combined PnL

$20.75

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 49¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Sion at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Sion

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Lausanne-Sport 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Sion49%

Lausanne-Sport51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Sion3 traders

Total Value$156.98

Total Shares320

Combined PnL+$20.65

Lausanne-Sport1 trader

Total Value$5.1

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.1

FC Sion — 75%Lausanne-Sport — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	FC Sionavg 39¢	$78	$98	+$20	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	FC Sionavg 49.1¢	$55	$54.9	-$0.1	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
RN1<$100	Lausanne-Sportavg 50¢	$5	$5.1	+$0.1	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	FC Sionavg 40¢	$3.33	$4.08	+$0.75	55% 1303-1046 (2349)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

FC Sion

Invested

$78

Value

$98

PnL

+$20

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

fooooolCTR<$100

FC Sion

Invested

$55

Value

$54.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

RN1<$100

Lausanne-Sport

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

FC Sion

Invested

$3.33

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.75

Record

55%

1303-1046 (2349)

Research grade

NeutralFC Sion at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FC Sion

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Lausanne-Sport 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Sion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.