Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Sion win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 14¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes86¢No14¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$35.64

Smart Money Entry

25.3¢ → 14¢

-45% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$656.41

Total Shares2,735

Combined PnL-$35.47

Yes3 traders

Total Value$384.9

Total Shares506

Combined PnL-$0.17

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 78.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.12	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78.8¢	$762.84	$735.65	-$27.19
└ No leg	Noavg 21.4¢	$307.44	$344.75	+$37.31
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 25¢	$657.5	$632.16	-$25.34	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 36¢	$705.53	$502.99	-$202.54	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$590.43	$393.55	-$196.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 79.9¢	$115.1	$109.44	-$5.66
FO foooool	Yesavg 76.5¢	$378.66	$376.09	-$2.57	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$34.89	$24.25	-$10.13	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 52.3¢	$3.56	$5.01	+$1.45	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$2.85	$3.8	+$0.95	55% 4855-4037 (8892)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,070.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.12

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

Both legs:

Yes$762.8478.8¢-$27.19

No$307.4421.4¢+$37.31

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$657.5

Value

$632.16

PnL

-$25.34

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$705.53

Value

$502.99

PnL

-$202.54

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Invested

$378.66

Value

$376.09

PnL

-$2.57

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$34.89

Value

$24.25

PnL

-$10.13

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$1.45

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.95

Record

55%

4855-4037 (8892)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.