Will Lausanne-Sport win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$10.6K
-$67.57
93.7¢ → 90.4¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 94¢ | $10.1K | $10.1K | -$53.96 | 93% 718-56 (774) |
FO foooool | Noavg 83.3¢ | $291.8 | $329.45 | +$37.64 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $141.12 | $141.12 | +$0 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $58.59 | $5.94 | -$52.65 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $5.25 | $5.28 | +$0.03 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $1.04 | $2.4 | +$1.36 | 50% 7770-7819 (15589) |
Invested
$10,149.96
Value
$10.1K
PnL
-$53.96
Record
93%
718-56 (774)
Invested
$291.8
Value
$329.45
PnL
+$37.64
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
RN1CTRInvested
$141.12
Value
$141.12
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Invested
$58.59
Value
$5.94
PnL
-$52.65
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.28
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$1.36
Record
50%
7770-7819 (15589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.