Will FC Sion vs. Lausanne-Sport end in a draw?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $193 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$192.78
-$17.51
93.9¢ → 86¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 94.5¢ | $196.97 | $179.31 | -$17.66 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $12.29 | $12.29 | +$0 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1.03 | $1.18 | +$0.15 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.