Will Grasshopper Club Zurich win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.4K
$230.64
81.6¢ → 89.5¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 81.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$138.14 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $292.94 | $359.99 | +$67.05 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 RN1 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $273.5 | $299.56 | +$26.06 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $15.57 | $15.57 | +$0.66 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $2.55 | $1.28 | -$1.27 | 55% 4855-4037 (8892) |
Invested
$1,626.98
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$138.14
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$292.94
Value
$359.99
PnL
+$67.05
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
RN1Invested
$273.5
Value
$299.56
PnL
+$26.06
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.57
Value
$15.57
PnL
+$0.66
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$1.27
Record
55%
4855-4037 (8892)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.