Will FC Basel 1893 win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.4K
-$128.74
60.3¢ → 77.5¢
+28% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 63.3¢ | $1.2K | $935.88 | -$248.88 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
 RN1 | Noavg 51.2¢ | $285.15 | $409.21 | +$124.05 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $58.31 | $51.06 | -$7.25 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 54.2¢ | $9.12 | $12.36 | +$3.24 | 55% 4855-4037 (8892) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $1.26 | $1.34 | +$0.08 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$1,184.75
Value
$935.88
PnL
-$248.88
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
RN1Invested
$285.15
Value
$409.21
PnL
+$124.05
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Invested
$58.31
Value
$51.06
PnL
-$7.25
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$12.36
PnL
+$3.24
Record
55%
4855-4037 (8892)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.