Will FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 86¢ · $571 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$571.4
$1.01
85.7¢ → 86¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 86¢ | $520 | $520 | +$0 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 71.6¢ | $22.86 | $26.32 | +$3.47 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
LO looppau<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $24.14 | $20.78 | -$3.36 | 99% 6822-38 (6860) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $4.3 | +$0.9 | 55% 4855-4037 (8892) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.