Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
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Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$5.0K
$426.14
86.4¢ → 91¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 86.4¢ | $4.4K | $4.8K | +$409.14 | 80% 381-94 (475) |
 BabyIBeenWatchingYou | Noavg 86¢ | $172 | $182 | +$17 | 65% 959-519 (1478) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.