Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
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Research candidate
No
5
No 100%
$4.1K
-$129.98
90.5¢ → 87.1¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 87%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
564h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 90.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.7K | -$61 | 80% 370-93 (463) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 92.3¢ | $246.12 | $1.3K | -$45.08 | 66% 770-401 (1171) |
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.0K | $965.07 | -$34.93 | 89% 468-59 (527) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $82.32 | $96.43 | +$10.64 | 53% 175-155 (330) |
QM QMG-CORE<$100 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $8.32 | $8.71 | +$0.39 | 77% 1369-405 (1774) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$61
Record
80%
370-93 (463)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$246.12
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$45.08
Record
66%
770-401 (1171)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$965.07
PnL
-$34.93
Record
89%
468-59 (527)
Invested
$82.32
Value
$96.43
PnL
+$10.64
Record
53%
175-155 (330)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.71
PnL
+$0.39
Record
77%
1369-405 (1774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.