Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Faisaly Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 52¢ · $397 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$396.69
-$9.43
50¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 50¢ | $275.17 | $264.16 | -$11.01 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $70.07 | $74.36 | +$4.29 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49.7¢ | $373.41 | $30.22 | -$3.24 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $14.21 | $14.07 | -$0.15 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.8¢ | $10.83 | $11.55 | +$0.72 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.39 | $2.34 | -$0.05 | 55% 1588-1308 (2896) |
Invested
$275.17
Value
$264.16
PnL
-$11.01
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$70.07
Value
$74.36
PnL
+$4.29
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$373.41
Value
$30.22
PnL
-$3.24
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14.21
Value
$14.07
PnL
-$0.15
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$10.83
Value
$11.55
PnL
+$0.72
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
Invested
$2.39
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$0.05
Record
55%
1588-1308 (2896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.