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UpDown
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Down
MayorMamdani<$100UpDown
pspspsps5CTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$98.03
Combined PnL
-$78.55
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares113
Combined PnL-$82.95
Up1 trader
Total Value$10
Total Shares10
Combined PnL+$4.4
Down — 80%Up — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $83.16 | $88.03 | +$4.87 | 51% 6161-5827 (11988) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.9¢ | $49.2 | $88.03 | +$38.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.1¢ | $33.96 | — | -$33.96 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $59.29 | — | -$57.31 | 65% 20113-10941 (31054) |
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.3¢ | $20.2 | — | -$20.2 | 49% 76421-79380 (155801) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $10 | +$4.4 | 55% 42952-35402 (78354) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 65% 119555-63208 (182763) |
pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 46% 37349-43554 (80903) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$83.16
Value
$88.03
PnL
+$4.87
Record
51%
6161-5827 (11988)
Both legs:
Up$49.255.9¢+$38.83
Down$33.9645.1¢-$33.96
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$59.29
Value
—
PnL
-$57.31
Record
65%
20113-10941 (31054)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
—
PnL
-$20.2
Record
49%
76421-79380 (155801)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.4
Record
55%
42952-35402 (78354)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
65%
119555-63208 (182763)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
46%
37349-43554 (80903)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf76468a5...f9b779
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793049300