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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 63%

Total Value

$64.55

Combined PnL

-$25.36

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares271
Combined PnL-$140.32
Down5 traders
Total Value$64.55
Total Shares65
Combined PnL+$114.95
Up — 50%Down — 50%
PL
ply-pm2CTR
Up

Invested

$120.97

Value

—

PnL

-$120.97

Record

51%

6132-5801 (11933)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$11.64

Value

—

PnL

-$11.64

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$51.55

Value

—

PnL

+$7.85

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$10.4

Value

—

PnL

-$10.4

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.15

Value

—

PnL

-$5.15

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$47.11

Value

$55

PnL

+$10.15

Record

65%

20047-10914 (30961)

AL
Alpharo28<$100
Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

51%

36931-35385 (72316)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$0.09

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

0X
0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192
Down

Invested

$100

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$53.87

Record

65%

98-52 (150)

OX
oxe78sh4w98<$100
Down

Invested

$97.06

Value

—

PnL

+$48.09

Record

52%

267-242 (509)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x9da422d7...08220a
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793045700

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Up — $0

-$120.97

OhioRiskManagement

CTR

Up — $0

-$11.64
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

CTR

Up — $0

+$7.85

MayorMamdani

CTR

Up — $0

-$10.4
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.15
AA

aaa221

Down — $55

+$10.15
AL

Alpharo28

Down — $5

+$2.75
HO

hoodquant

Down — $4.54

+$0.09
0X

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Down — $0.01

+$53.87
OX

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $0

+$48.09
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