Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Up 56%
1 arb excluded
$363.91
$121.45
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.2¢ | $144.86 | $96 | -$48.86 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.2¢ | $107.6 | — | -$107.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.8¢ | $37.26 | $96 | +$58.74 | |
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192 | Downavg 39¢ | $45 | $115.41 | +$70.41 | 65% 98-52 (150) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Downavg 38.6¢ | $43.44 | $112.5 | +$69.06 | 52% 267-242 (509) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $13.8 | $30 | +$16.2 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $19.68 | — | -$19.68 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.8¢ | $6.35 | — | -$6.35 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 51% 36931-35385 (72316) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5 | $10 | +$5 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 46% 37328-43529 (80857) |
Invested
$144.86
Value
$96
PnL
-$48.86
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Both legs:
Invested
$45
Value
$115.41
PnL
+$70.41
Record
65%
98-52 (150)
Invested
$43.44
Value
$112.5
PnL
+$69.06
Record
52%
267-242 (509)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$30
PnL
+$16.2
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
Invested
$19.68
Value
—
PnL
-$19.68
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.35
Value
—
PnL
-$6.35
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
51%
36931-35385 (72316)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5
Value
$10
PnL
+$5
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
46%
37328-43529 (80857)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192
Down — $115.41
oxe78sh4w98
Down — $112.5
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $30
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
Alpharo28
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $10
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0