Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 71%
2 arb excluded
$429.1
$41.15
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 23.2¢ | $89.89 | $152.42 | +$62.53 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.2¢ | $50.85 | — | -$50.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.6¢ | $39.04 | $152.42 | +$113.38 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $63.6 | $79.22 | +$15.62 | 63% 49651-29409 (79060) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1¢ | $1.01 | — | -$1.01 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79¢ | $62.59 | $79.22 | +$16.63 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $40.77 | $67.3 | +$26.53 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $56.35 | $57.5 | +$1.15 | 93% 21764-1691 (23455) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 28.4¢ | $11.67 | $33.97 | +$22.3 | 51% 36931-35385 (72316) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $26.4 | — | -$26.4 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 26.5¢ | $7.07 | $26.7 | +$19.63 | 46% 37328-43529 (80857) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $9.13 | — | -$9.13 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $4.92 | $12 | +$7.08 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
Invested
$89.89
Value
$152.42
PnL
+$62.53
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$63.6
Value
$79.22
PnL
+$15.62
Record
63%
49651-29409 (79060)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$40.77
Value
$67.3
PnL
+$26.53
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
Invested
$56.35
Value
$57.5
PnL
+$1.15
Record
93%
21764-1691 (23455)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$33.97
PnL
+$22.3
Record
51%
36931-35385 (72316)
Invested
$26.4
Value
—
PnL
-$26.4
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$7.07
Value
$26.7
PnL
+$19.63
Record
46%
37328-43529 (80857)
Invested
$9.13
Value
—
PnL
-$9.13
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$12
PnL
+$7.08
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
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