Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 36%
$235.47
-$113.75
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 77.4¢ | $71.99 | $88.78 | +$16.79 | 63% 47908-28533 (76441) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 16.6¢ | $149.71 | — | -$149.71 | 51% 6090-5751 (11841) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $11.02 | $32 | +$20.98 | 49% 74813-77595 (152408) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $29.8 | — | -$29.8 | 51% 36402-34777 (71179) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $21.6 | $22.5 | +$0.9 | 93% 21661-1689 (23350) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 82.2¢ | $19.4 | $21.89 | +$2.49 | 55% 41532-33955 (75487) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $4.87 | $18.78 | +$13.91 | 59% 16253-11192 (27445) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $15.02 | $17.27 | +$2.25 | 65% 19942-10858 (30800) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 34.6¢ | $7 | $20.25 | +$13.25 | 55% 16497-13232 (29729) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $10.2 | $12 | +$1.8 | 55% 48240-39209 (87449) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 52% 87230-81412 (168642) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 84% 54657-10104 (64761) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 15.2¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 66% 118108-62171 (180279) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 | 59% 36759-26055 (62814) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$71.99
Value
$88.78
PnL
+$16.79
Record
63%
47908-28533 (76441)
Invested
$149.71
Value
—
PnL
-$149.71
Record
51%
6090-5751 (11841)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.02
Value
$32
PnL
+$20.98
Record
49%
74813-77595 (152408)
Invested
$29.8
Value
—
PnL
-$29.8
Record
51%
36402-34777 (71179)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
93%
21661-1689 (23350)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$21.89
PnL
+$2.49
Record
55%
41532-33955 (75487)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$4.87
Value
$18.78
PnL
+$13.91
Record
59%
16253-11192 (27445)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$17.27
PnL
+$2.25
Record
65%
19942-10858 (30800)
Invested
$7
Value
$20.25
PnL
+$13.25
Record
55%
16497-13232 (29729)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$12
PnL
+$1.8
Record
55%
48240-39209 (87449)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
87230-81412 (168642)
Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
84%
54657-10104 (64761)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
66%
118108-62171 (180279)
Invested
$1
Value
$2
PnL
+$1
Record
59%
36759-26055 (62814)
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