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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 57%
Total Value
$67.67
Combined PnL
-$36.63
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$67.67
Total Shares68
Combined PnL+$6.87
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares139
Combined PnL-$43.5
Up — 43%Down — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 83.5¢ | $26.71 | $30.27 | +$3.56 | 65% 19783-10760 (30543) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $30 | +$0.3 | 66% 117132-61537 (178669) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.6¢ | $15.7 | — | -$15.7 | 51% 6022-5698 (11720) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $9.04 | — | -$9.04 | 57% 64862-49061 (113923) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $16.61 | — | -$16.61 | 51% 36118-34701 (70819) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 59.3¢ | $4.38 | $7.39 | +$3.01 | 59% 36626-25967 (62593) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.5¢ | $2.16 | — | -$2.16 | 52% 86873-81238 (168111) |
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$26.71
Value
$30.27
PnL
+$3.56
Record
65%
19783-10760 (30543)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$29.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.3
Record
66%
117132-61537 (178669)
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100Invested
$15.7
Value
—
PnL
-$15.7
Record
51%
6022-5698 (11720)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$9.04
Value
—
PnL
-$9.04
Record
57%
64862-49061 (113923)
AL
Alpharo28CTR<$100Invested
$16.61
Value
—
PnL
-$16.61
Record
51%
36118-34701 (70819)
0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100Invested
$4.38
Value
$7.39
PnL
+$3.01
Record
59%
36626-25967 (62593)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
—
PnL
-$2.16
Record
52%
86873-81238 (168111)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe00521a3...b3b7c7
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793018700