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DownUpUp
OhioRiskManagement<$100DownUp
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$108.18
Combined PnL
-$15.63
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares33
Combined PnL-$19.87
Down2 traders
Total Value$21.12
Total Shares21
Combined PnL+$4.24
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 37.2¢ | $60.04 | $87.07 | +$27.03 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.2¢ | $32.42 | $87.07 | +$54.64 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.5¢ | $27.61 | — | -$27.61 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $8.67 | — | -$8.67 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $4.45 | — | -$4.45 | 51% 34593-33126 (67719) |
OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $8.4 | $12 | +$3.6 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.5¢ | $6.75 | — | -$6.75 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $8.48 | $9.12 | +$0.64 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$60.04
Value
$87.07
PnL
+$27.03
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
Down$32.4237.2¢+$54.64
Up$27.6152.5¢-$27.61
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
—
PnL
-$8.67
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
AL
Alpharo28CTR<$100Invested
$4.45
Value
—
PnL
-$4.45
Record
51%
34593-33126 (67719)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.6
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$6.75
Value
—
PnL
-$6.75
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.48
Value
$9.12
PnL
+$0.64
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5e224f2c...1f2e3d
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1793005800