Solana Up or Down - October 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 100¢ · $170 held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$170

Combined PnL

$19.25

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$91.95

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$17.2

Up4 traders

Total Value$37.7

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$2.06

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 29.4¢	$32.38	$49.31	+$16.93	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 20.3¢	$38.92	$40.72	+$1.79	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$38.35	$40.35	+$2	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.2¢	$25.3	$20.2	-$5.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$13.05	$20.15	+$7.1
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 34¢	$8.19	$14.44	+$6.25	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$12.87	$12.81	-$0.06	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$5.94	$5.91	-$0.03	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 96¢	$8.64	$4.55	-$4.1	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2.7¢	$3.45	$1.92	-$1.53	59% 16037-10985 (27022)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.38

Value

$49.31

PnL

+$16.93

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.92

Value

$40.72

PnL

+$1.79

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$38.35

Value

$40.35

PnL

+$2

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Up$25.363.2¢-$5.1

Down$13.0532.1¢+$7.1

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$8.19

Value

$14.44

PnL

+$6.25

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$12.87

Value

$12.81

PnL

-$0.06

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$0.03

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$4.1

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.45

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$1.53

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.