Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $177 held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$177.17

Combined PnL

$3.79

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$81.19

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$26.42

Up3 traders

Total Value$28.82

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$22.63

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 99¢	$60.37	$67.04	+$6.67	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
└ Down leg	Downavg 6.3¢	$4.93	$38.76	+$33.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 99¢	$55.44	$28.28	-$27.16
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 33.6¢	$39.42	$58	+$18.58	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$14.97	$16.26	+$1.29	51% 34593-33126 (67719)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 98.5¢	$29.56	$15.15	-$14.41	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 96¢	$17.58	$9.25	-$8.33	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 2.7¢	$0.38	$6.93	+$6.55	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$4.31	$4.43	+$0.11	58% 35008-25112 (60120)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$60.37

Value

$67.04

PnL

+$6.67

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Both legs:

Invested

$39.42

Value

$58

PnL

+$18.58

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.97

Value

$16.26

PnL

+$1.29

Record

51%

34593-33126 (67719)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$29.56

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$14.41

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$17.58

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$8.33

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.38

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$6.55

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.