Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Solana Up or Down - October 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
11
Down 73%
1 arb excluded
$214.39
-$0.93
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.2Β’ | $74.85 | $63.35 | -$11.5 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 22Β’ | $32.3 | β | -$32.3 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 67.2Β’ | $42.55 | $63.35 | +$20.79 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75.4Β’ | $45.26 | $60 | +$14.73 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 67.9Β’ | $21.35 | $16.17 | -$5.18 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $19.5 | β | -$19.5 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 49Β’ | $16.17 | β | -$16.17 | 51% 34593-33126 (67719) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 76.4Β’ | $17.57 | $23 | +$5.43 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 61.2Β’ | $12.9 | $21.08 | +$8.18 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2Β’ | $0.41 | β | -$0.41 | 59% 16037-10985 (27022) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 69.4Β’ | $7.63 | $11 | +$3.37 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 48Β’ | $4.61 | $9.61 | +$5 | 68% 94633-44122 (138755) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 60Β’ | $3.05 | $5.09 | +$2.04 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 69Β’ | $3.51 | $5.09 | +$1.58 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
Invested
$74.85
Value
$63.35
PnL
-$11.5
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.26
Value
$60
PnL
+$14.73
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$21.35
Value
$16.17
PnL
-$5.18
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
Invested
$19.5
Value
β
PnL
-$19.5
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$16.17
Value
β
PnL
-$16.17
Record
51%
34593-33126 (67719)
Invested
$17.57
Value
$23
PnL
+$5.43
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
$21.08
PnL
+$8.18
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.41
Value
β
PnL
-$0.41
Record
59%
16037-10985 (27022)
Invested
$7.63
Value
$11
PnL
+$3.37
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$4.61
Value
$9.61
PnL
+$5
Record
68%
94633-44122 (138755)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$2.04
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$1.58
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
aaa221
Down β $60

OhioRiskManagement
Down β $16.17
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp β $0
Alpharo28
CTRUp β $0
uninformedfloww
Down β $23

MayorMamdani
Down β $21.08

pspspsps5
CTRUp β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $11
antsaslyku
Down β $9.61