Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Up 56%
1 arb excluded
$339.57
$5.56
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.3¢ | $168.54 | $163.74 | -$4.8 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34¢ | $55.67 | $163.74 | +$108.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.3¢ | $112.87 | — | -$112.87 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $60.9 | — | -$60.9 | 68% 77726-36976 (114702) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.9¢ | $26.9 | — | -$26.9 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $23.05 | $37.06 | +$14.01 | 58% 16384-12007 (28391) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 21.6¢ | $16.82 | $77.76 | +$60.94 | 50% 54008-54171 (108179) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 66.6¢ | $19.38 | $29.09 | +$9.71 | 62% 42888-25869 (68757) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $14.47 | — | -$14.47 | 85% 67119-12101 (79220) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.96 | $31.93 | +$30.97 | 81% 32112-7778 (39890) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $4.92 | — | -$4.92 | 77% 25565-7723 (33288) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $2.88 | — | -$2.88 | 51% 33593-32241 (65834) |
Invested
$168.54
Value
$163.74
PnL
-$4.8
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.9
Value
—
PnL
-$60.9
Record
68%
77726-36976 (114702)
Invested
$26.9
Value
—
PnL
-$26.9
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$23.05
Value
$37.06
PnL
+$14.01
Record
58%
16384-12007 (28391)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$16.82
Value
$77.76
PnL
+$60.94
Record
50%
54008-54171 (108179)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$19.38
Value
$29.09
PnL
+$9.71
Record
62%
42888-25869 (68757)
Invested
$14.47
Value
—
PnL
-$14.47
Record
85%
67119-12101 (79220)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$31.93
PnL
+$30.97
Record
81%
32112-7778 (39890)
Invested
$4.92
Value
—
PnL
-$4.92
Record
77%
25565-7723 (33288)
Invested
$2.88
Value
—
PnL
-$2.88
Record
51%
33593-32241 (65834)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $37.06
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $77.76
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $29.09
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $31.93
asdaefef
CTRUp — $0
Alpharo28
CTRUp — $0