Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - October 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 63%
2 arb excluded
$590.54
$12.6
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $167.71 | $260.61 | +$92.89 | 52% 5827-5465 (11292) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.6¢ | $45.25 | — | -$45.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47¢ | $122.46 | $260.61 | +$138.14 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.3¢ | $161.59 | $147.03 | -$14.56 | 88% 48649-6911 (55560) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.3¢ | $81.91 | — | -$81.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.2¢ | $79.68 | $147.03 | +$67.35 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $48.44 | $67.77 | +$19.33 | 50% 52086-52143 (104229) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $2.81 | — | -$2.81 | 62% 42694-25786 (68480) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $7.27 | $10.25 | +$2.98 | 63% 19526-11360 (30886) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $45.81 | — | -$30.26 | 67% 13816-6882 (20698) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $30 | +$0.3 | 68% 75669-35734 (111403) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $14.11 | $24.65 | +$10.54 | 51% 33410-32117 (65527) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $13.9 | $20.29 | +$6.39 | 58% 16353-11988 (28341) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $4.1 | $7.19 | +$3.09 | 55% 42809-34660 (77469) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.6¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 76% 24812-7703 (32515) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $5.67 | — | -$5.67 | 59% 15305-10802 (26107) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 61% 14030-8793 (22823) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.5 | $9 | +$4.5 | 84% 61854-12050 (73904) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $0.62 | $6.17 | +$5.55 | 53% 15155-13652 (28807) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.69 | $5.49 | +$2.8 | 55% 39952-33285 (73237) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 71% 20772-8504 (29276) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $1.34 | $2.09 | +$0.75 | 56% 40908-32497 (73405) |
Invested
$167.71
Value
$260.61
PnL
+$92.89
Record
52%
5827-5465 (11292)
Both legs:
Invested
$161.59
Value
$147.03
PnL
-$14.56
Record
88%
48649-6911 (55560)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$48.44
Value
$67.77
PnL
+$19.33
Record
50%
52086-52143 (104229)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.81
Value
—
PnL
-$2.81
Record
62%
42694-25786 (68480)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$2.98
Record
63%
19526-11360 (30886)
Invested
$45.81
Value
—
PnL
-$30.26
Record
67%
13816-6882 (20698)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.3
Record
68%
75669-35734 (111403)
Invested
$14.11
Value
$24.65
PnL
+$10.54
Record
51%
33410-32117 (65527)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.9
Value
$20.29
PnL
+$6.39
Record
58%
16353-11988 (28341)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$7.19
PnL
+$3.09
Record
55%
42809-34660 (77469)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
76%
24812-7703 (32515)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.67
Value
—
PnL
-$5.67
Record
59%
15305-10802 (26107)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
61%
14030-8793 (22823)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$9
PnL
+$4.5
Record
84%
61854-12050 (73904)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$6.17
PnL
+$5.55
Record
53%
15155-13652 (28807)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$5.49
PnL
+$2.8
Record
55%
39952-33285 (73237)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
71%
20772-8504 (29276)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0.75
Record
56%
40908-32497 (73405)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $67.77
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $10.25
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $30
Alpharo28
Down — $24.65
MayorMamdani
Down — $20.29
mo-money
Down — $7.19