Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (98%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down - October 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 2.0¢ · $48 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Up
3
Up 67%
$48.38
-$2.53
Research grade
AvoidUp at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $45.73 | $47.68 | +$1.94 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 4.6¢ | $1.04 | $0.45 | -$0.59 | 51% 32488-31050 (63538) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $4.14 | $0.25 | -$3.89 | 52% 5773-5390 (11163) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.