Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (97%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down - October 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 3.0¢ · $52 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Down
3
Down 67%
$52.34
-$6.14
Research grade
AvoidDown at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $49.1 | $27.85 | -$21.25 | 52% 5773-5390 (11163) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $4.53 | $24.28 | +$19.75 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $4.85 | $0.21 | -$4.64 | 51% 32488-31050 (63538) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.