Solana Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 99¢ · $104 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Down
3
Down 100%
$103.78
$34.95
Research grade
NeutralDown at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $47.91 | $87.71 | +$39.81 | 52% 5773-5390 (11163) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $13.08 | $8.14 | -$4.94 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $7.84 | $7.92 | +$0.08 | 63% 19263-11278 (30541) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.