Solana Up or Down - October 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 99¢ · $148 held · ended Oct 25

Up99¢Down1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 100%

Total Value

$148.41

Combined PnL

$40.82

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$148.41

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$40.82

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 58¢	$57.3	$78.11	+$20.81	52% 5773-5390 (11163)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 56.5¢	$22.41	$39.26	+$16.85	51% 32488-31050 (63538)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 92.3¢	$43.63	$16.79	+$3.16	67% 13654-6785 (20439)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 99¢	$14.25	$14.25	+$0	62% 40770-24941 (65711)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$57.3

Value

$78.11

PnL

+$20.81

Record

52%

5773-5390 (11163)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$22.41

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$16.85

Record

51%

32488-31050 (63538)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$43.63

Value

$16.79

PnL

+$3.16

Record

67%

13654-6785 (20439)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

40770-24941 (65711)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.