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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$212.16

Combined PnL

$15.91

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$164.33

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$34.19

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$18.28

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$57.71	$47.83	-$9.89	52% 5647-5267 (10914)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$23.68	—	-$23.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$34.03	$47.83	+$13.79
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$68.77	$86.07	+$17.3	60% 15015-9882 (24897)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 84.5¢	$34.32	$39.69	+$5.37	59% 15172-10589 (25761)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 15.4¢	$7.74	—	-$7.74	58% 11010-8076 (19086)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 71¢	$21.3	$30	+$8.7	67% 13368-6654 (20022)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 20.3¢	$4.18	—	-$4.18	76% 23816-7542 (31358)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 20.8¢	$2.32	—	-$2.32	63% 18916-11136 (30052)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$2.12	—	-$2.12	65% 13433-7163 (20596)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 67.1¢	$5.76	$8.57	+$2.82	83% 59673-11815 (71488)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	58% 16129-11743 (27872)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$0.32	—	-$0.32	76% 26083-8095 (34178)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$57.71

Value

$47.83

PnL

-$9.89

Record

52%

5647-5267 (10914)

Both legs:

Up$23.6825.7¢-$23.68

Down$34.0371.2¢+$13.79

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$68.77

Value

$86.07

PnL

+$17.3

Record

60%

15015-9882 (24897)

Invested

$34.32

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$5.37

Record

59%

15172-10589 (25761)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$7.74

Value

—

PnL

-$7.74

Record

58%

11010-8076 (19086)

Invested

$21.3

Value

$30

PnL

+$8.7

Record

67%

13368-6654 (20022)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

—

PnL

-$4.18

Record

76%

23816-7542 (31358)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

—

PnL

-$2.32

Record

63%

18916-11136 (30052)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

—

PnL

-$2.12

Record

65%

13433-7163 (20596)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$2.82

Record

83%

59673-11815 (71488)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

58%

16129-11743 (27872)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$0.32

Value

—

PnL

-$0.32

Record

76%

26083-8095 (34178)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd4c32fc0...fc8c98

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1792934400

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $86.07

pspspsps5

Down — $39.69

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

aaa221

Down — $30

asdaefef

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $8.57

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

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