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UpUpUp
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100UpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$135.86
Combined PnL
-$74.52
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares97
Combined PnL-$78.28
Down1 trader
Total Value$5.61
Total Shares6
Combined PnL+$3.76
Up — 75%Down — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $119.49 | $130.26 | +$10.77 | 51% 6112-5777 (11889) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.9¢ | $58.47 | $130.26 | +$71.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.5¢ | $61.02 | — | -$61.02 | |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $31.18 | — | -$31.18 | 66% 108603-55064 (163667) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $53.13 | — | -$39.4 | 65% 19990-10879 (30869) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $7.7 | — | -$7.7 | 63% 47924-28546 (76470) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $1.85 | $5.61 | +$3.76 | 52% 87251-81446 (168697) |
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$119.49
Value
$130.26
PnL
+$10.77
Record
51%
6112-5777 (11889)
Both legs:
Down$58.4744.9¢+$71.79
Up$61.0259.5¢-$61.02
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$31.18
Value
—
PnL
-$31.18
Record
66%
108603-55064 (163667)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$53.13
Value
—
PnL
-$39.4
Record
65%
19990-10879 (30869)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$7.7
Value
—
PnL
-$7.7
Record
63%
47924-28546 (76470)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$1.85
Value
$5.61
PnL
+$3.76
Record
52%
87251-81446 (168697)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x181f952d...710f57
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1793042100