Solana Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $260 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 100%
$259.66
$2.31
83.2¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 89.4¢ | $134.04 | $140.9 | +$6.87 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 79.8¢ | $52.8 | $48.7 | -$4.1 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $28.11 | $26.35 | -$1.75 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 79.3¢ | $30.35 | $22.33 | +$1.85 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $14.69 | $14.83 | +$0.15 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $6.79 | $6.09 | -$0.7 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
Invested
$134.04
Value
$140.9
PnL
+$6.87
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Invested
$52.8
Value
$48.7
PnL
-$4.1
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Invested
$28.11
Value
$26.35
PnL
-$1.75
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$30.35
Value
$22.33
PnL
+$1.85
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$14.69
Value
$14.83
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$6.09
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.