Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
7
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$215.09
-$124.68
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.1Β’ | $74.89 | β | -$74.89 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 38.3Β’ | $107.88 | $160.09 | +$52.22 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.8Β’ | $46.56 | β | -$46.56 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 38.3Β’ | $61.32 | $160.09 | +$98.78 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98Β’ | $49 | $50 | +$1 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.8Β’ | $22.67 | β | -$22.33 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 59.7Β’ | $19.24 | β | -$19.24 | 58% 11584-8476 (20060) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 22Β’ | $5.52 | β | -$5.52 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.5Β’ | $7.25 | β | -$7.25 | 56% 15511-12385 (27896) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 29Β’ | $1.45 | $5 | +$3.55 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
Invested
$74.89
Value
β
PnL
-$74.89
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$107.88
Value
$160.09
PnL
+$52.22
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
Invested
$49
Value
$50
PnL
+$1
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
Invested
$22.67
Value
β
PnL
-$22.33
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$19.24
Value
β
PnL
-$19.24
Record
58%
11584-8476 (20060)
Invested
$5.52
Value
β
PnL
-$5.52
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
Invested
$7.25
Value
β
PnL
-$7.25
Record
56%
15511-12385 (27896)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.55
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
CTRUp β $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Down β $50
aaa221
CTRUp β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp β $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp β $0
dvasdkasodk
Down β $5