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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$268.35

Combined PnL

-$597.48

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$660.68

Up5 traders

Total Value$167.79

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$63.2

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 65.5¢	$491.52	—	-$491.52	88% 52847-6938 (59785)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 46.9¢	$119.09	—	-$119.09	52% 5848-5486 (11334)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$131.26	$100.57	-$30.7	72% 48453-19245 (67698)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$68.68	—	-$68.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$62.58	$100.57	+$37.98
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 31.9¢	$39.9	$70.95	+$31.05	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 99¢	$29.7	$30	+$0.3	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$19.99	—	-$19.99	85% 67119-12101 (79220)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 93.6¢	$26.42	—	-$26.42	62% 42888-25869 (68757)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$21.26	$37.05	+$15.79	67% 13858-6900 (20758)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 43¢	$11.16	$25.96	+$14.8	67% 14977-7366 (22343)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$3.66	—	-$3.66	64% 20058-11389 (31447)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 67¢	$2.56	$3.82	+$1.26	58% 11317-8292 (19609)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$491.52

Value

—

PnL

-$491.52

Record

88%

52847-6938 (59785)

Invested

$119.09

Value

—

PnL

-$119.09

Record

52%

5848-5486 (11334)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Invested

$131.26

Value

$100.57

PnL

-$30.7

Record

72%

48453-19245 (67698)

Both legs:

Down$68.6858¢-$68.68

Up$62.5862.2¢+$37.98

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$39.9

Value

$70.95

PnL

+$31.05

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.3

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$19.99

Value

—

PnL

-$19.99

Record

85%

67119-12101 (79220)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$26.42

Value

—

PnL

-$26.42

Record

62%

42888-25869 (68757)

Invested

$21.26

Value

$37.05

PnL

+$15.79

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$11.16

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$14.8

Record

67%

14977-7366 (22343)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

—

PnL

-$3.66

Record

64%

20058-11389 (31447)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$1.26

Record

58%

11317-8292 (19609)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1cc66856...37905b

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1792982700

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $70.95

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $30

antsaslyku

Down — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $37.05

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $25.96

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

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