Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Solana Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 50¢ · $373 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Down
4
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$373.46
-$13.89
Research grade
NeutralDown at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $163.55 | $225.78 | +$62.23 | 52% 5773-5390 (11163) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52¢ | $80.83 | $146.19 | +$65.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $82.72 | $79.59 | -$3.13 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $56.51 | $59.21 | +$2.7 | 62% 40770-24941 (65711) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $66.57 | $42.27 | -$20.07 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $13.4 | $29.29 | +$15.89 | 63% 19263-11278 (30541) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 36.6¢ | $12.4 | $16.92 | -$12.4 | 57% 32486-24933 (57419) |
Invested
$163.55
Value
$225.78
PnL
+$62.23
Record
52%
5773-5390 (11163)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$56.51
Value
$59.21
PnL
+$2.7
Record
62%
40770-24941 (65711)
Invested
$66.57
Value
$42.27
PnL
-$20.07
Record
67%
13654-6785 (20439)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$29.29
PnL
+$15.89
Record
63%
19263-11278 (30541)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$16.92
PnL
-$12.4
Record
57%
32486-24933 (57419)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.