Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
6
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$200.29
-$79.29
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 42Β’ | $122.15 | $132.12 | +$9.96 | 52% 5732-5342 (11074) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 42Β’ | $65.49 | β | -$65.49 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 42.9Β’ | $56.67 | $132.12 | +$75.45 | |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 85.5Β’ | $56.74 | β | -$56.74 | 62% 40698-24908 (65606) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 60.6Β’ | $32.94 | β | -$32.94 | 83% 60158-11892 (72050) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 50.6Β’ | $41.67 | β | -$30.97 | 67% 13565-6732 (20297) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 48Β’ | $24.7 | $51.45 | +$26.75 | 57% 32454-24904 (57358) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 10.8Β’ | $1.76 | $16.36 | +$14.6 | 63% 19117-11233 (30350) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $0.36 | $0.36 | +$0 | 93% 20381-1637 (22018) |
Invested
$122.15
Value
$132.12
PnL
+$9.96
Record
52%
5732-5342 (11074)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$56.74
Value
β
PnL
-$56.74
Record
62%
40698-24908 (65606)
Invested
$32.94
Value
β
PnL
-$32.94
Record
83%
60158-11892 (72050)
Invested
$41.67
Value
β
PnL
-$30.97
Record
67%
13565-6732 (20297)
Invested
$24.7
Value
$51.45
PnL
+$26.75
Record
57%
32454-24904 (57358)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$16.36
PnL
+$14.6
Record
63%
19117-11233 (30350)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.36
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
20381-1637 (22018)
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