Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 37¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.9K
$357.4
32.9¢ → 36.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
1410h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AllByMyseIfCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $2.8K | $3.1K | +$295.29 | 65% 660-353 (1013) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $411.07 | $405.52 | -$5.56 | 52% 1618-1484 (3102) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 27¢ | $243 | $328.5 | +$85.5 | 52% 977-906 (1883) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 71¢ | $142 | $127 | -$15 | 57% 14687-11038 (25725) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 67.9¢ | $26.86 | $24.02 | -$2.84 | 17% 3123-14824 (17947) |
AllByMyseIfCTRInvested
$2,762.6
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$295.29
Record
65%
660-353 (1013)
Invested
$411.07
Value
$405.52
PnL
-$5.56
Record
52%
1618-1484 (3102)
Invested
$243
Value
$328.5
PnL
+$85.5
Record
52%
977-906 (1883)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$142
Value
$127
PnL
-$15
Record
57%
14687-11038 (25725)
2B9S<$100Invested
$26.86
Value
$24.02
PnL
-$2.84
Record
17%
3123-14824 (17947)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.