Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.4K
-$659.91
79.1¢ → 90.5¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-33 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
539h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 85.1¢ | $1.2K | $765.91 | -$181.84 | 57% 14725-11079 (25804) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 65.5¢ | $208.03 | $269.68 | +$61.66 | 53% 1771-1563 (3334) |
 Mr-Krabs | Noavg 71.4¢ | $152.56 | $163.14 | +$10.59 | 77% 554-161 (715) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $569.3 | $109 | -$460.3 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $30.3 | $30.01 | -$0.01 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $112.5 | $20 | -$90 | 46% 103-123 (226) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,248.35
Value
$765.91
PnL
-$181.84
Record
57%
14725-11079 (25804)
StarMasterInvested
$208.03
Value
$269.68
PnL
+$61.66
Record
53%
1771-1563 (3334)
Mr-KrabsInvested
$152.56
Value
$163.14
PnL
+$10.59
Record
77%
554-161 (715)
Invested
$569.3
Value
$109
PnL
-$460.3
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$30.3
Value
$30.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Invested
$112.5
Value
$20
PnL
-$90
Record
46%
103-123 (226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.