Will ACD Ospitaletto win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 58¢ · $452 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$452.42
-$3.34
59¢ → 58¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 59¢ | $236 | $232 | -$4 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $219.95 | $208.9 | -$11.05 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45¢ | $166.01 | $154.96 | -$11.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58¢ | $53.94 | $53.94 | +$0 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $5.55 | $6.3 | +$0.75 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $5.31 | $5.22 | -$0.09 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$236
Value
$232
PnL
-$4
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$219.95
Value
$208.9
PnL
-$11.05
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.55
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$0.75
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.31
Value
$5.22
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.