Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will AC Trento win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 25¢ · $806 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$806.12
-$38.6
51.7¢ → 25¢
-52% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 54.5¢ | $448.84 | $428.6 | -$20.24 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $181.69 | $173.16 | -$8.53 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $171 | $162.83 | -$8.17 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $41.08 | $39.5 | -$1.58 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $2.11 | $2.03 | -$0.08 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$448.84
Value
$428.6
PnL
-$20.24
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$181.69
Value
$173.16
PnL
-$8.53
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
Invested
$171
Value
$162.83
PnL
-$8.17
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
Invested
$41.08
Value
$39.5
PnL
-$1.58
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.11
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.