Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

SEF Torres Sassari vs. Guidonia Montecelio 1937 FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 48¢ · $519 held · ends Oct 25

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$518.8

Combined PnL

$5.42

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 48¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$431.21

Total Shares898

Combined PnL+$3.55

Under1 trader

Total Value$87.6

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$1.87

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 47¢	$235	$240	+$5	47% 1967-2201 (4168)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$186.66	$185.21	-$1.45	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49.4¢	$181.72	$87.6	+$1.87	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$6	$6	+$0	58% 1451-1066 (2517)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$235

Value

$240

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

1967-2201 (4168)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$186.66

Value

$185.21

PnL

-$1.45

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$181.72

Value

$87.6

PnL

+$1.87

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.