Will AZ Picerno win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 54¢ · $273 held · ended Oct 26

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$273.32

Combined PnL

-$20.21

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 54¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$212.23

Total Shares567

Combined PnL-$24.89

Yes2 traders

Total Value$61.09

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$4.69

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74¢	$165.47	$169.49	+$4.03	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 81.4¢	$49.99	$54.68	+$4.69	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 74¢	$63.64	$35.26	-$28.38	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 11.8¢	$8.02	$7.48	-$0.54	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$6.41	$6.41	+$0	61% 8719-5662 (14381)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$165.47

Value

$169.49

PnL

+$4.03

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.99

Value

$54.68

PnL

+$4.69

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63.64

Value

$35.26

PnL

-$28.38

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$8.02

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.54

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.41

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.