Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
US Albinoleffe leading at halftime?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 23¢ · $442 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$441.52
$1.48
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $200 | $185.88 | -$14.12 | 34% 66-131 (197) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $145 | $154 | +$9 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 72¢ | $95.03 | $101.63 | +$6.6 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.