Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-28?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$48.58

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,785

Combined PnL+$25.86

No3 traders

Total Value$891.15

Total Shares3,363

Combined PnL+$22.72

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 73¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$27.39	65% 1616-869 (2485)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 25.7¢	$767.53	$789.74	+$23.2	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123	Yesavg 74¢	$226.44	$224.91	-$1.53	60% 45-30 (75)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$64.8	$63.6	-$1.2	55% 2155-1770 (3925)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$37.1	$37.82	+$0.71	53% 15228-13430 (28658)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$3,999.53

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$27.39

Record

65%

1616-869 (2485)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$767.53

Value

$789.74

PnL

+$23.2

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

PLACEYOURBETS123

Yes

Invested

$226.44

Value

$224.91

PnL

-$1.53

Record

60%

45-30 (75)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$64.8

Value

$63.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

55%

2155-1770 (3925)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$37.1

Value

$37.82

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

15228-13430 (28658)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.