Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (35%) · No at 95¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 25

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 35%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 94.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares30,551

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares19,860

Combined PnL+$447.43

No — 35%Yes — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 93¢	$15.1K	$13.0K	$-2.1K	93% 728-56 (784)
0X 0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186	Noavg 93¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$28.55	96% 433-20 (453)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 80¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	66% 279-142 (421)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 79¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$21.88	69% 1773-803 (2576)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$2.27	53% 13639-12083 (25722)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$2.15
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$423.94	$424.07	+$0.12
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$883.55	$916.11	+$32.56	56% 2060-1620 (3680)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 20.7¢	$930	$900	-$30	51% 1015-964 (1979)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$330.03	$827.1	+$497.07	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$299.71	$286.35	-$13.36	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
0010001000001100CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$226.31	$154.31	+$0	63% 1153-667 (1820)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 90¢	$147.43	$148	+$0.56	53% 12339-11044 (23383)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$71.19	$76.28	+$5.09	65% 12582-6711 (19293)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 82¢	$55.2	$55.64	+$0.25	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$31.97	$31.19	-$0.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$23.23	$24.45	+$1.22
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 80¢	$40	$40	+$0	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$32.6	$35.31	+$2.72	58% 1485-1095 (2580)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$55.12	$20.67	-$34.45	65% 2863-1510 (4373)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$16.95	$6.5	-$10.45	55% 4919-4092 (9011)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$6.98	$5.81	-$1.17	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.4	$0.83	-$0.57	46% 1542-1790 (3332)

Momo63

Invested

$15,065.99

Value

$13.0K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

93%

728-56 (784)

0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186

Invested

$5,310.08

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$28.55

Record

96%

433-20 (453)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

279-142 (421)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$1,728.85

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$21.88

Record

69%

1773-803 (2576)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$1,691.02

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$2.27

Record

53%

13639-12083 (25722)

Both legs:

No$1,267.0879.9¢+$2.15

Yes$423.9420¢+$0.12

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$883.55

Value

$916.11

PnL

+$32.56

Record

56%

2060-1620 (3680)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$930

Value

$900

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

1015-964 (1979)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$330.03

Value

$827.1

PnL

+$497.07

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$299.71

Value

$286.35

PnL

-$13.36

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

0010001000001100CTR

Yes

Invested

$226.31

Value

$154.31

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

1153-667 (1820)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$147.43

Value

$148

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

12339-11044 (23383)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.19

Value

$76.28

PnL

+$5.09

Record

65%

12582-6711 (19293)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$55.2

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

Both legs:

No$31.9782¢-$0.97

Yes$23.2319¢+$1.22

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$40

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.6

Value

$35.31

PnL

+$2.72

Record

58%

1485-1095 (2580)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.12

Value

$20.67

PnL

-$34.45

Record

65%

2863-1510 (4373)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.95

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$10.45

Record

55%

4919-4092 (9011)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.98

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$1.17

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.57

Record

46%

1542-1790 (3332)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.