Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 5.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 95¢ · $275 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$274.73
$1.13
95.5¢ → 95¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 96¢ | $202.1 | $199.99 | -$2.11 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 94¢ | $71.44 | $74.48 | +$3.04 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.1¢ | $0.06 | $0.25 | +$0.2 | 50% 7851-7906 (15757) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.