Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$97.96

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 84.5¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,167

Combined PnL+$108.56

Over2 traders

Total Value$15.23

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$10.6

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 72.3¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$73.7	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
RN1	Underavg 58.2¢	$160.33	$217.48	+$57.15	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 72¢	$204	$200	-$11	56% 6426-5142 (11568)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72¢	$144	$150	-$1
└ Over leg	Overavg 30¢	$60	$50	-$10
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 85.9¢	$150.65	$131.6	-$19.05	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 88¢	$22	$18.75	-$3.25	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$24.94	$14.5	-$10.44	51% 6859-6549 (13408)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$0.73	$0.73	-$0.16	56% 2071-1630 (3701)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,982.97

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$73.7

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

RN1

Under

Invested

$160.33

Value

$217.48

PnL

+$57.15

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$204

Value

$200

PnL

-$11

Record

56%

6426-5142 (11568)

Both legs:

Invested

$150.65

Value

$131.6

PnL

-$19.05

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$22

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$3.25

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.94

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$10.44

Record

51%

6859-6549 (13408)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.16

Record

56%

2071-1630 (3701)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.