Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
2 arb excluded
$4.3K
-$2.49
52¢ → 50.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$47.58 | 52% 1362-1272 (2634) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 49.9¢ | $1.0K | $999.24 | -$48.69 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Overavg 52¢ | $275.28 | $275.28 | +$0 | 55% 1306-1048 (2354) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $198 | $200 | +$2 | 56% 6385-5115 (11500) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52¢ | $104 | $106 | +$2 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $94 | $94 | +$0 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $171.61 | $170.08 | -$4.14 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.5¢ | $119.24 | $115.62 | -$3.62 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $52.37 | $54.46 | -$0.52 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $90.3 | $88.42 | -$1.88 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $34.99 | $35.66 | +$0.67 | 57% 4941-3668 (8609) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $8.28 | $8.11 | -$0.17 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
us391Invested
$2,474.11
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$47.58
Record
52%
1362-1272 (2634)
Invested
$1,042.62
Value
$999.24
PnL
-$48.69
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Invested
$275.28
Value
$275.28
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1306-1048 (2354)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$198
Value
$200
PnL
+$2
Record
56%
6385-5115 (11500)
Both legs:
Invested
$171.61
Value
$170.08
PnL
-$4.14
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.3
Value
$88.42
PnL
-$1.88
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$34.99
Value
$35.66
PnL
+$0.67
Record
57%
4941-3668 (8609)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.28
Value
$8.11
PnL
-$0.17
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.